2023 NBA In-Season Tournament picks, predictions by proven model
Eastern Conference powers meet with lofty stakes on Tuesday evening. The Milwaukee Bucks welcome the New York Knicks to Fiserv Forum for a quarterfinal matchup of the 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament. The winner will earn a trip to Las Vegas for the semifinal later this week. New York has won three straight games, improving to 12-7 overall and 6-4 on the road this season. Milwaukee is 14-6 overall, including a win over New York in early November, and is 9-1 at home.
For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Bucks as 5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 228.5 in the latest Knicks vs. Bucks odds. Before making any Bucks vs. Knicks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 7 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 92-50 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Knicks vs. Bucks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Knicks vs. Bucks:
Knicks vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -5
Knicks vs. Bucks over/under: 228.5 points
Knicks vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -206, Knicks +170
NYK: The Knicks are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 road games
MIL: The Bucks are 3-6-1 against the spread in the last 10 home games
Knicks vs. Bucks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Knicks can cover
Julius Randle is red-hot for the Knicks as they arrive in Milwaukee. Randle is averaging 20.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game this season, and he has scored at least 20 points in 12 of the last 13 games. Randle is flanked by another highly productive offensive force in Jalen Brunson, and the Knicks have elite characteristics in key areas. The Knicks are in the top five of the NBA in offensive rebound rate (34.1%), second-chance points (16.3 per game), and turnovers (12.9 per game) this season, and New York is facing a Milwaukee defense that is in the bottom third of the league in overall defensive efficiency.
On the other end, New York is playing outstanding defense. The Knicks lead the NBA in defensive rebound rate (74.4%) and second-chance points allowed (11.3 per game), helping to push New York to a top-three overall mark in defensive efficiency. The Knicks hold opponents to only 1.09 points per possession, and New York is firmly in the top five of the NBA in assists allowed (24.5 per game), points allowed in the paint (44.0 per game), and free throw attempts allowed (18.8 per game). See which team to pick here.
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee outpaces New York when it comes to offensive firepower. The Bucks have two players averaging more than 25 points per game, and rank in the top five of the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 118.0 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks are elite from a shooting efficiency standpoint, making 49.5% of field goal attempts, 58.5% of 2-point attempts, and 37.3% of 3-point attempts. Milwaukee is also creating more than 25 free throw attempts per game, and New York’s offense is vulnerable.
The Knicks are dead-last in the NBA in 2-point shooting this season, making only 49.2% of attempts inside the arc. New York is also in the bottom five in field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and assists per game, with the Bucks operating at a high level in preventing free throws on defense. Milwaukee also has the benefit of playing at Fiserv Forum, where the team is 9-1 this season, and former NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo enters on a hot streak with 33.2 points per game on 64.7% shooting over his last 12 outings. See which team to pick here.
How to make Knicks vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the point total, with only five players projected to score 13 points or more. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.